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Week 7 · Standard start/sit

Start Geno Smith or Tanner McKee?

The verdict

Start Geno Smith

Wins 60% of simulated matchups against McKee.

Smith already played: 23.5 Standard pts (projected 13.9).

Week 6: McKee outscored Smith 12.6 to 12.0. Our call, start Smith (54%), was wrong.

Smith 60% 40% McKee

Share of simulations in which each player scores more Standard pts. How accurate are these?

How much safer? See both floors and ceilings
QB Jets QB #20 Start

Geno Smith

vs Miami Dolphins · Final · MIA 28–25 NYJ

Median (Standard) 13.9
Status Active
QB Eagles QB #24

Tanner McKee

vs Dallas Cowboys · Monday, October 26, 8:15 PM ET

Median (Standard) 11.0
Status Active

Last 4 games

Recent form

  • Smith: 13.5 Standard pts/game over his last 4, 100% of snaps, MIA allows the 7th most to QBs.
  • McKee: 12.6 Standard pts/game over his last 1, 100% of snaps, DAL allows the 5th most to QBs.
Smith Opp Pts Snaps Att
Wk 7 vs MIA 23.5 100% 30
Wk 6 @ NE 12.0 100% 30
Wk 5 vs CLE 10.0 100% 30
Wk 4 @ CHI 8.8 100% 15
McKee Opp Pts Snaps Att
Wk 6 vs CAR 12.6 100% 45

Week 7

Projected stat lines

Stat Smith McKee
Median Standard pts 13.9 11.0
Pass Yds 185.8 159.3
Pass TD 1.3 1.0
INT 0.6 0.3
Rush Yds 10.6 10.4
Rush TD 0.2 0.2

Floor, ceiling, boom & bust

Range of outcomes

Who wins if you need a big week?

Both players’ floor, ceiling and boom/bust odds, with their simulated ranges side by side.

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